Diffuse glioma, not otherwise specified: imaging-based risk stratification achieves histomolecular-level prognostication.

Abstract

To determine whether imaging-based risk stratification enables prognostication in diffuse glioma, NOS (not otherwise specified). Data from 220 patients classified as diffuse glioma, NOS, between January 2011 and December 2020 were retrospectively included. Two neuroradiologists analyzed pre-surgical CT and MRI to assign gliomas to the three imaging-based risk types considering well-known imaging phenotypes (e.g., T2/FLAIR mismatch). According to the 2021 World Health Organization classification, the three risk types included (1) low-risk, expecting oligodendroglioma, isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-mutant, and 1p/19q-codeleted; (2) intermediate-risk, expecting astrocytoma, IDH-mutant; and (3) high-risk, expecting glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated for each risk type. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis using 10-fold cross-validation with 100-fold bootstrapping was used to compare the performance of an imaging-based survival model with that of a historical molecular-based survival model published in 2015, created using The Cancer Genome Archive data. Prognostication according to the three imaging-based risk types was achieved for both PFS and OS (log-rank test, p < 0.001). The imaging-based survival model showed high prognostic value, with areas under the curves (AUCs) of 0.772 and 0.650 for 1-year PFS and OS, respectively, similar to the historical molecular-based survival model (AUC = 0.74 for PFS and 0.87 for OS). The imaging-based survival model achieved high long-term performance in both 3-year PFS (AUC = 0.806) and 5-year OS (AUC = 0.812). Imaging-based risk stratification achieved histomolecular-level prognostication in diffuse glioma, NOS, and could aid in guiding patient referral for insufficient or unsuccessful molecular diagnosis. • Three imaging-based risk types enable distinct prognostication in diffuse glioma, NOS (not otherwise specified). • The imaging-based survival model achieved similar prognostic performance as a historical molecular-based survival model. • For long-term prognostication of 3 and 5 years, the imaging-based survival model showed high performance.