Impacts of the Statewide COVID-19 Lockdown Interventions on Excess Mortality, Unemployment, and Employment Growth.

Abstract

The aim of the study is to determine relationships between lockdowns and excess mortality, unemployment, and employment growth. Each US states' mortality data for 2020 were compared with the prior 3 years to determine excess mortality. Data were compared using measures of lockdowns, or state openness scores and adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and cardiovascular disease. Comparisons were made with unemployment rates and employment growth rates. The 2020 excess mortality ranged from -9% to 46%. The average openness score was not significant ( P = 0.20). However, openness was strongly associated with both unemployment ( P = 0.01) and employment growth ( P = 0.0008). There was no statistical relationship between excess mortality and openness scores, while there were strong relationships with employment measures. These results suggest that lockdowns are not sufficiently beneficial for future use in this pandemic and raise concerns for use in future pandemics.