Predicted Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection sites in Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana using the species distribution model maxent.

Abstract

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) which causes that amphibian disease chytridiomycosis is expanding its worldwide range from an Asian origin, infecting amphibians in a growing number of countries. Modelling the potential range of this amphibian pathogen using environmental variables and presence data could advance our understanding of at-risk areas and species in locations with limited surveillance to date. We used a species distribution model to assess Bd habitat suitability in the three Guiana's (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana) in South America. The model output showed that all three countries have substantial areas where Bd could grow and proliferate, and maximum temperature of the warmest month was the top predictor of suitable Bd habitat, inversely correlated with modeled Bd occurrence. Predicted Bd infection areas in Guyana and French Guiana were large and localized whereas possible sites in Suriname were more scattered throughout the country. The areas projected as potential suitable in Suriname were mostly high elevation regions. These results could help inform efficiencies for development of a proactive monitoring program that could alert managers of novel Bd outbreaks for focused mitigation actions to forestall the spread of this amphibian disease.