Fock-space approach to stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered models.

Abstract

We investigate the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model of infectious disease dynamics in the Fock-space approach. In contrast to conventional SIR models based on ordinary differential equations for the subpopulation sizes of S, I, and R individuals, the stochastic SIR model is driven by a master equation governing the transition probabilities among the system's states defined by SIR occupation numbers. In the Fock-space approach the master equation is recast in the form of a real-valued Schrödinger-type equation with a second quantization Hamiltonian-like operator describing the infection and recovery processes. We find exact analytic expressions for the Hamiltonian eigenvalues for any population size N. We present small- and large-N results for the average numbers of SIR individuals and basic reproduction number. For small N we also obtain the probability distributions of SIR states, epidemic sizes and durations, which cannot be found from deterministic SIR models. Our Fock-space approach to stochastic SIR models introduces a powerful set of tools to calculate central quantities of epidemic processes, especially for relatively small populations where statistical fluctuations not captured by conventional deterministic SIR models play a crucial role.