Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England.
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Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 35995764.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0 and PMC identifier 9395530.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Control and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic in England has relied on a combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Some of these NPIs are extremely costly (economically and socially), so it was important to relax these promptly without overwhelming already burdened health services. The eventual policy was a Roadmap of four relaxation steps throughout 2021, taking England from lock-down to the cessation of all restrictions on social interaction. In a series of six Roadmap documents generated throughout 2021, models assessed the potential risk of each relaxation step. Here we show that the model projections generated a reliable estimation of medium-term hospital admission trends, with the data points up to September 2021 generally lying within our 95% prediction intervals. The greatest uncertainties in the modelled scenarios came from vaccine efficacy estimates against novel variants, and from assumptions about human behaviour in the face of changing restrictions and risk.
Medical subject headings
- COVID-19