Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle.

Abstract

Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle, however, the relative contributions to streamflow changes from climate and land management have not been assessed at the continental scale. We analyze streamflow data in major South American tropical river basins and show that water use and deforestation have amplified climate change effects on streamflow extremes over the past four decades. Drying (fewer floods and more droughts) is aligned with decreasing rainfall and increasing water use in agricultural zones and occurs in 42% of the study area. Acceleration (both more severe floods and droughts) is related to more extreme rainfall and deforestation and occurs in 29% of the study area, including southern Amazonia. The regionally accelerating water cycle may have adverse global impacts on carbon sequestration and food security.