Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) Predicts Postoperative Major Complications After Hepato-Pancreato Biliary Surgery in the Elderly.

Abstract

As society ages, an increasing number of elderly patients require hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. We investigated the risk factors for complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery using surgical risk scoring models. We retrospectively investigated 184 elderly patients (≥ 65 years old) who underwent HPB surgery, including the liver, pancreas, bile duct, and/or gallbladder resection, with exemption to simple cholecystectomy between January 2017 and December 2019. The surgical risk scoring models used included the Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and Geriatric 8 (G8). We evaluated the correlations between the scores and severe complications. Complications were classified as severe (Clavien-Dindo classification [C-D] ≥ III) or non-severe (C-D ≤ II). Complications occurred in 78 patients (24 C-D ≥ III, 54 C-D ≤ II). Preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were significantly higher in patients with C-D ≥ IIIa than in those with C-D ≤ II. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PRS (P = 0.01) and SSS (P = 0.04) were independent predictive factors for severe complications. However, the POSSUM and G8 models showed no significant correlations to severe complications. E-PASS is a useful model for predicting complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery.