Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.

López Vázquez, Pablo Carlos; Sánchez González, Gilberto; Martínez Ortega, Jorge; Arroyo Duarte, Renato Salomón · PLoS One · 2022

other · Level V

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Abstract

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.

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