Long-Term Prognosis and Prognostic Indicators of Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The 8th edition of the TNM stage classification of lung cancer was developed based on an evaluation of the 5-year prognosis using an international database. Since recurrence after 5 years postoperatively is known to develop, the applicability of the stage classification beyond 5 years after treatment needs to be evaluated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Postoperative prognosis and prognostic indicators were analyzed using data for 648 patients of pathological stage IA adenocarcinoma, who underwent complete resection between 2007 and 2012. RESULTS: The median age was 66 years (interquartile range 60-73 years), and the median follow-up duration was 100 months (interquartile range 70-116 months). Overall survival probabilities for pathological stage IA1, IA2, and IA3 patients were 100%, 96.3%, and 91.5% at 5 postoperative years, and 94.2%, 89.8%, and 83.5% at 10 postoperative years, respectively (IA1 vs IA2: p = 0.05; IA2 vs IA3: p = 0.05). Multivariate analysis for overall survival of patients who survived without recurrence for 5 postoperative years revealed that age (hazard ratio 3.21, p = 0.02) was the only factor that was significantly associated with long-term survival. Stage classification (IA1, IA2, or IA3) was not an associated factor. The incidence of secondary primary lung cancer continued to increase, resulting in an estimated probability of 8.6% at 10 postoperative years. CONCLUSIONS: For patients who survived without recurrence for 5 postoperative years, age, not stage classification, was associated with survival thereafter. The long-term follow-up strategy does not need to be modified according to the stage classification, and screening for secondary primary lung cancer should be considered.