If the price is right: Cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation versus thyroidectomy in the treatment of benign thyroid nodules.

Abstract

Radiofrequency ablation is an emerging technology in the United States to treat benign thyroid nodules. The cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation in comparison with traditional thyroidectomy is unknown. A patient-level state transition microsimulation decision model was constructed comparing radiofrequency ablation with lobectomy in the management of benign thyroid nodules. Our base case was a 45-year-old woman with a solitary 30-cm³ nodule. Estimates of health utilities, complications, and mortality were obtained from the literature, and costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursement data. The primary outcomes of interest included total cost, quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. All model estimates were subjected to 1-way sensitivity analyses to identify factors that strongly influence cost-effectiveness. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was run across 1 million simulations to gauge outcome confidence with a willingness-to-pay threshold set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. Radiofrequency ablation was assumed to cost $5,000, with an initial success rate of 78%. Patients with volume reduction ratio <50% underwent a second treatment of radiofrequency ablation. Radiofrequency ablation represented the dominant strategy, yielding 21.31 quality-adjusted life years for a total cost of $16,563 in comparison to lobectomy, which yielded 21.13 quality-adjusted life years for a total cost of $19,262. In a 1-way sensitivity analysis varying the cost of radiofrequency ablation across of range of values, the radiofrequency ablation strategy remained cost-effective until the cost of radiofrequency ablation exceeded $12,330 at willingness-to-pay $50,000 or $17,950 at willingness-to-pay $100,000. Radiofrequency ablation is a cost-effective strategy in the treatment of benign thyroid nodules but is most sensitive to the cost of radiofrequency ablation.