Economy-wide evaluation of CO₂ and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States.

Abstract

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO₂ and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO₂ and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM_2.5 sources-such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions-can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO₂ policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.