External Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Prognostic Tools.

Ebell, Mark H; Lennon, Robert P; Tarn, Derjung M; Barrett, Bruce; Krist, Alex H; Dong, Huamei; Cai, Xinyan; Mainous, Arch G et al. · Ann Fam Med · 2022

retrospective_cohort · Level III

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Abstract

Our objective was to externally validate 2 simple risk scores for mortality among a mostly inpatient population with COVID-19 in Canada (588 patients for COVID-NoLab and 479 patients for COVID-SimpleLab). The mortality rates in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for COVID-NoLab were 1.1%, 9.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. The mortality rates for COVID-SimpleLab were 0.0%, 9.8%, and 20.0%, respectively. These values were similar to those in the original derivation cohort. The 2 simple risk scores, now successfully externally validated, offer clinicians a reliable way to quickly identify low-risk inpatients who could potentially be managed as outpatients in the event of a bed shortage. Both are available online (https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/covid_nolab/ and https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/COVID-SimpleLab/).

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