Analysis of daily COVID-19 death bulletin data during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thiruvananthapuram district, Kerala, India.

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality trends can help discern the pattern of outbreak evolution and systemic responses. This study aimed to explore patterns of COVID-19 deaths in Thiruvananthapuram district from 31 March 2020 to 31 December 2021. Secondary data analysis of COVID-19 deaths in Thiruvananthapuram district was performed. Mortality data were obtained from the district COVID-19 control room, and deaths in the first and second waves of COVID-19 were compared. We summarised data as proportions and medians with the inter-quartile range (IQR) and performed Chi-square tests to make comparisons wherever applicable. As on 31 December 2021, 4587 COVID-19 deaths were reported in Thiruvananthapuram district, with a case fatality rate of 0.91%. We observed high mortality among older persons (66.7%) and men (56.6%). The leading cause of death was bronchopneumonia (60.6%). The majority (88.5%) had co-morbidities, commonly diabetes mellitus (54.9%). The median interval from diagnosis to hospitalisation was 4 days (IQR 2-7), and that from hospitalisation to death was 2 days (IQR 0-6). The deaths reported during the second wave were four times higher than those of the first wave with a higher proportion of deaths in the absence of co-morbidities (p < 0.001). The majority of the deceased were unvaccinated. Ecological analysis with vaccine coverage data indicated 5.4 times higher mortality among unvaccinated than those who received two vaccine doses. The presence of co-morbidities, an unvaccinated status, and delay in hospitalisation were important reasons for COVID-19 deaths. Primary level health providers can potentially help sustaining vaccination, expeditious referral, and monitoring of COVID-19 patients.