Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 36797932.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1103/PhysRevE.107.L012201.
- No licence information is recorded for this record.
- Because redistribution is not established, this page shows the abstract only. Follow the links below for the full text.
Abstract
Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-recovered (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics.