Can We Use Artificial Intelligence Cluster Analysis to Identify Patients with Metastatic Breast Cancer to the Spine at Highest Risk of Postoperative Adverse Events?

Abstract

Group patients who required open surgery for metastatic breast cancer to the spine by functional level and metastatic disease characteristics to identify factors that predispose to poor outcomes. A retrospective analysis included patients managed at 2 tertiary referral centers from 2008 to 2020. The primary outcome was a 90-day adverse event. A 2-step unsupervised cluster analysis stratified patients into cohorts using function at presentation, preoperative spine radiation, structural instability, epidural spinal cord compression (ESCC), neural deficits, and tumor location/hormone status. Comparisons were performed using χ² test and one-way analysis of variance. Five patient "clusters" were identified. High function (HIGH) had thoracic metastases and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score of 1.0 ± 0.8. Low function/irradiated (LOW + RADS) had preoperative radiation and the lowest Karnofsky scores (56.0 ± 10.6). Estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor (ER/PR) positive patients had >90% estrogen/progesterone positivity and moderate Karnofsky scores (74.0 ± 11.5). Lumbar/noncompressive (NON-COMP) had the fewest patients with ESCC grade 2 or 3 epidural disease (42.1%, P < 0.001). Low function/neurologic deficits (LOW + NEURO) had ESCC grade 2 or 3 disease and neurologic deficits. Adverse event rates were 25.0% in the HIGH group, 73.3% in LOW + RADS, 24.0% in ER/PR, 31.6% in NON-COMP, and 60.0% in LOW + NEURO (P = 0.003). Function at presentation, tumor hormone signature, radiation history, and epidural compression delineated postoperative trajectory. We believe our results can aid in expectation management and the identification of at-risk patients who may merit closer surveillance following surgical intervention.