AI Estimation of Gestational Age from Blind Ultrasound Sweeps in Low-Resource Settings.

Abstract

Ultrasound is indispensable to gestational age estimation and thus to quality obstetrical care, yet high equipment cost and the need for trained sonographers limit its use in low-resource settings. From September 2018 through June 2021, we recruited 4695 pregnant volunteers in North Carolina and Zambia and obtained blind ultrasound sweeps (cineloop videos) of the gravid abdomen alongside standard fetal biometry. We trained a neural network to estimate gestational age from the sweeps and, in three test data sets, assessed the performance of the artificial intelligence (AI) model and biometry against previously established gestational age. In our main test set, the mean absolute error (MAE) (±SE) was 3.9±0.12 days for the model versus 4.7±0.15 days for biometry (difference, -0.8 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to -0.5; P<0.001). The results were similar in North Carolina (difference, -0.6 days; 95% CI, -0.9 to -0.2) and Zambia (-1.0 days; 95% CI, -1.5 to -0.5). Findings were supported in the test set of women who conceived by in vitro fertilization (MAE of 2.8±0.28 vs. 3.6±0.53 days for the model vs. biometry; difference, -0.8 days; 95% CI, -1.7 to 0.2) and in the set of women from whom sweeps were collected by untrained users with low-cost, battery-powered devices (MAE of 4.9±0.29 vs. 5.4±0.28 days for the model vs. biometry; difference, -0.6; 95% CI, -1.3 to 0.1). When provided blindly obtained ultrasound sweeps of the gravid abdomen, our AI model estimated gestational age with accuracy similar to that of trained sonographers conducting standard fetal biometry. Model performance appears to extend to blind sweeps collected by untrained providers in Zambia using low-cost devices. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).