A nationally validated novel risk assessment calculator for prediction of unplanned reoperations and readmissions in hand surgery.

Abstract

Risk predictors are an emerging tool as the need for individualized risk estimation in clinical decision-making persists. Existing risk indices have had limited success in accurately predicting hand surgery risks. This study provides a novel risk calculator for reliably predicting reoperations and readmissions in hand surgery. Hand surgeries from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) 2012-2019 database were identified. Independent predictors of 30-day unplanned reoperation and readmission were identified in the modeling sample (2012-2019) and subsequently weighted to generate a Novel Risk Score (NRS). The NRS was validated on a 2020 NSQIP hand surgery cohort and compared to the modified frailty index (mFI-5) and the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI) with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. Eighty-three thousand four hundred nine hand surgeries were identified for modeling. Reoperations and readmissions rates were 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Independent risk factors included male gender, inpatient status, smoking, dialysis dependence, transfusion within 72 h of surgery, wound classification, ASA class, diabetes mellitus, CHF, sepsis or septic shock, emergent case, and operative time longer than 75 min (all P < 0.05). ROC analysis of the 2020 cohort rendered an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.730, which demonstrates the accuracy of this prediction model. The mFI-5 and mCCI rendered AUCs of 0.580 and 0.585, respectively. We present a validated risk prediction tool for unplanned reoperations and readmissions following hand surgery that outperforms the mFI-5 and mCCI that are available online. Future studies should evaluate clinical efficacy.