Overestimated nitrogen loss from denitrification for natural terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP6 Earth System Models.

Feng, Maoyuan; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Yilong; Ciais, Philippe; Goll, Daniel S; Chang, Jinfeng; Fang, Yunting; Houlton, Benjamin Z et al. · Nat Commun · 2023

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

Denitrification and leaching nitrogen (N) losses are poorly constrained in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we produce a global map of natural soil <sup>15</sup>N abundance and quantify soil denitrification N loss for global natural ecosystems using an isotope-benchmarking method. We show an overestimation of denitrification by almost two times in the 13 ESMs of the Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, 73 ± 31 Tg N yr<sup>-1</sup>), compared with our estimate of 38 ± 11 Tg N yr<sup>-1</sup>, which is rooted in isotope mass balance. Moreover, we find a negative correlation between the sensitivity of plant production to rising carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentration and denitrification in boreal regions, revealing that overestimated denitrification in ESMs would translate to an exaggeration of N limitation on the responses of plant growth to elevated CO<sub>2</sub>. Our study highlights the need of improving the representation of the denitrification in ESMs and better assessing the effects of terrestrial ecosystems on CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation.