Increase in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño.

Abstract

At seasonal-to-interannual timescales, Atlantic hurricane activity is greatly modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. However, those climate modes develop predominantly in boreal winter or spring and are weaker during the Atlantic hurricane season (June-November). The leading mode of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the Atlantic hurricane season is Atlantic Niño/Niña, which is characterized by warm/cold SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. However, the linkage between Atlantic Niño/Niña and hurricane activity has not been examined. Here, we use observations to show that Atlantic Niño, by strengthening the Atlantic inter-tropical convergence zone rainband, enhances African easterly wave activity and low-level cyclonic vorticity across the deep tropical eastern North Atlantic. We show that such conditions increase the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing in the deep tropics near the Cape Verde islands, elevating the risk of major hurricanes impacting the Caribbean islands and the U.S.