Detecting temporal and spatial malaria patterns from first antenatal care visits.

Abstract

Pregnant women attending first antenatal care (ANC) visits represent a promising malaria surveillance target in Sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the spatio-temporal relationship between malaria trends at ANC (n = 6471) and in children in the community (n = 3933) and at health facilities (n = 15,467) in southern Mozambique (2016-2019). ANC P. falciparum rates detected by quantitative polymerase chain reaction mirrored rates in children, regardless of gravidity and HIV status (Pearson correlation coefficient [PCC] > 0.8, χ²<1.1), with a 2-3 months lag. Only at rapid diagnostic test detection limits at moderate-to-high transmission, did multigravidae show lower rates than children (PCC = 0.61, 95%CI[-0.12-0.94]). Seroprevalence against the pregnancy-specific antigen VAR2CSA reflected declining malaria trends (PCC = 0.74, 95%CI[0.24-0.77]). 60% (9/15) of hotspots detected from health facility data (n = 6662) using a novel hotspot detector, EpiFRIenDs, were also identified with ANC data (n = 3616). Taken together, we show that ANC-based malaria surveillance offers contemporary information on temporal trends and geographic distribution of malaria burden in the community.