Why estimands are needed to define treatment effects in clinical trials.

Abstract

The estimand for a clinical trial is a precise definition of the treatment effect to be estimated. Traditionally, estimates of treatment effects are based on either an ITT analysis or a per-protocol analysis. However, there are important clinical questions which are not addressed by either of these analyses. For example, consider a trial where patients take a rescue medication. The ITT analysis includes data after use of rescue, while the per-protocol analysis excludes these patients altogether. Neither of these analyses addresses the important question of what the treatment effect would have been if patients did not take rescue medication. Trial estimands provide a broader perspective compared to the limitations of ITT and per-protocol analysis. Trial treatment effects depend on how events occurring after treatment initiation such as use of alternative medication or discontinuation of the intervention are included in the definition. These events can be accounted for in different ways, depending on the clinical question of interest. The estimand framework is an important step forward in improving the clarity and transparency of clinical trials. The centrality of estimands to clinical trials is currently not reflected in methods recommended by the Cochrane group or the CONSORT statement, the current standard for reporting clinical trials in medical journals. We encourage revisions to these guidelines.