Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37556532.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adg8304 and PMC identifier 10411875.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (-4.14 cubic meters per second per year), which is more relevant than the precipitation decline, is attributed to a combination of changes in the precipitation regime, resulting in a decline of snow fraction (-0.6% per year) and snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters per day per year), and to increasing evaporation rate (+0.013 cubic kilometers per year) and irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents a compelling case where the hydrological impact of climate change is exacerbated by local changes in hydrologic seasonality and water use.