Earthquake alerting based on spatial geodetic data by spatiotemporal information transformation learning.

Abstract

Alerting for imminent earthquakes is particularly challenging due to the high nonlinearity and nonstationarity of geodynamical phenomena. In this study, based on spatiotemporal information (STI) transformation for high-dimensional real-time data, we developed a model-free framework, i.e., real-time spatiotemporal information transformation learning (RSIT), for extending the nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Specifically, by transforming high-dimensional information of the global navigation satellite system into one-dimensional dynamics via the STI strategy, RSIT efficiently utilizes two criteria of the transformed one-dimensional dynamics, i.e., unpredictability and instability. Such two criteria contemporaneously signal a potential critical transition of the geodynamical system, thereby providing early-warning signals of possible upcoming earthquakes. RSIT explores both the spatial and temporal dynamics of real-world data on the basis of a solid theoretical background in nonlinear dynamics and delay-embedding theory. The effectiveness of RSIT was demonstrated on geodynamical data of recent earthquakes from a number of regions across at least 4 y and through further comparison with existing methods.