Off-label drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: topic modelling and sentiment analysis of ivermectin in South Africa and Nigeria as a case study.

Abstract

Although rejected by the World Health Organization, the human and even veterinary formulation of ivermectin has widely been used for prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this work we leverage Twitter to understand the reasons for the drug use from ivermectin supporters, their source of information, their emotions, their gender demographics, and location information, in Nigeria and South Africa. Topic modelling is performed on a Twitter dataset gathered using keywords 'ivermectin' and 'ivm'. A model is fine-tuned on RoBERTa to find the stance of the tweets. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the stance and emotions. Most ivermectin supporters either redistribute conspiracy theories posted by influencers, or refer to flawed studies confirming ivermectin efficacy <i>in vitro</i>. Three emotions have the highest intensity, optimism, joy and disgust. The number of anti-ivermectin tweets has a significant positive correlation with vaccination rate. All the provinces in South Africa and most of the provinces of Nigeria are pro-ivermectin and have higher disgust polarity. This work makes the effort to understand public discussions regarding ivermectin during the COVID-19 pandemic to help policy-makers understand the rationale behind its popularity, and inform more targeted policies to discourage self-administration of ivermectin. Moreover, it is a lesson to future outbreaks.