Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37758952.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0 and PMC identifier 10620083.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn<sup>1,2</sup>, have destructive impacts on life and property<sup>3-5</sup>, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer<sup>6,7</sup>, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.
Medical subject headings
- Cyclonic Storms
- Global Warming
- Oceans and Seas
- Seasons
- Tropical Climate