Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes.
retrospective_cohort · Level III
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37815808.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1093/infdis/jiad445.
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Abstract
The time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt at time t) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed Rt estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease-based Rt (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based Rt (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable Rt estimates.
Medical subject headings
- COVID-19