Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37833276.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-42033-8 and PMC identifier 10575924.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO<sub>2</sub> doubling (2×CO<sub>2</sub>) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO<sub>2</sub> forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.