Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37880222.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-42373-5 and PMC identifier 10600212.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Previous studies have emphasized the significance of a strong El Niño preceding La Niña (LN) in the formation of multi-year LN events due to the slow recharge-discharge ocean heat content process. However, observational analyses from 1900 to 2022 reveal that the majority (64%) of multi-year LN events did not necessitate a preceding strong El Niño to generate their second LN, suggesting an overemphasis on traditional views. Instead, here we show that a negative phase of the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) during spring, when the first LN begins to decay, activates the mechanism responsible for triggering another LN and producing a multi-year event. The westward extension of the first LN's cold anomalies, which interact directly with the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool, is highlighted as a crucial factor in the occurrence of a negative PMM. Additionally, the PMM mechanism can create a third LN, leading to triple-dip events.