Tropical mountain ice core δ<sup>18</sup>O: A Goldilocks indicator for global temperature change.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37939192.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adi6725 and PMC identifier 10631737.
- Licence recorded as CC BY-NC.
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Abstract
Very high tropical alpine ice cores provide a distinct paleoclimate record for climate changes in the middle and upper troposphere. However, the climatic interpretation of a key proxy, the stable water oxygen isotopic ratio in ice cores (δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>ice</sub>), remains an outstanding problem. Here, combining proxy records with climate models, modern satellite measurements, and radiative-convective equilibrium theory, we show that the tropical δ<sup>18</sup>O<sub>ice</sub> is an indicator of the temperature of the middle and upper troposphere, with a glacial cooling of -7.35° ± 1.1°C (66% CI). Moreover, it severs as a "Goldilocks-type" indicator of global mean surface temperature change, providing the first estimate of glacial stage cooling that is independent of marine proxies as -5.9° ± 1.2°C. Combined with all estimations available gives the maximum likelihood estimate of glacial cooling as -5.85° ± 0.51°C.