Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 37976352.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adg3035 and PMC identifier 10656067.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The Mid-Pliocene represents the most recent interval in Earth history with climatic conditions similar to those expected in the coming decades. Mid-Pliocene sea level estimates therefore provide important constraints on projections of future ice sheet behavior and sea level change but differ by tens of meters due to local distortion of paleoshorelines caused by mantle dynamics. We combine an Australian sea level marker compilation with geodynamic simulations and probabilistic inversions to quantify and remove these post-Pliocene vertical motions at continental scale. Dynamic topography accounts for most of the observed sea level marker deflection, and correcting for this effect and glacial isostatic adjustment yields a Mid-Pliocene global mean sea level of +16.0 (+10.4 to +21.5) m (50th/16th to 84th percentiles). Recalibration of recent high-end sea level projections using this revised estimate implies a more stable Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming scenarios, consistent with midrange forecasts of sea level rise that do not incorporate a marine ice cliff instability.