Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand.

Abstract

The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on the build-out of infrastructure, including for CO₂ transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58-65% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22-56% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.