Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 38053384.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1098/rsif.2023.0322 and PMC identifier 10698490.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984 · · · occurs at [Formula: see text]. In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination.
Medical subject headings
- Communicable Diseases
- Epidemics