Business forecasting methods: Impressive advances, lagging implementation.

Abstract

Reliable forecasts are key to decisions in areas ranging from supply chain management to capacity planning in service industries. It is encouraging then that recent decades have seen dramatic advances in forecasting methods which have the potential to significantly increase forecast accuracy and improve operational and financial performance. However, despite their benefits, we have evidence that many organizations have failed to take up systematic forecasting methods. In this paper, we provide an overview of recent advances in forecasting and then use a combination of survey data and in-depth semi-structured interviews with forecasters to investigate reasons for the low rate of adoption. Finally, we identify pathways that could lead to the greater and more widespread use of systematic forecasting methods.