Development of a nomogram for predicting pharyngocutaneous fistula based on skeletal muscle mass and systemic inflammation indices.

Abstract

Laryngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers often require surgical treatment, which can lead to the development of pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF). Our research aimed to assess the predictive value of skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and systemic inflammation indices for PCF and construct a clinically effective nomogram. A nested case-control study of 244 patients matched from 1171 patients with laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer was conducted. SMM was measured at the third cervical level based on CT scans. A PCF nomogram was developed based on the univariate and multivariate analyses. Glucose, white blood cell count, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and skeletal muscle index were independent risk factors for PCF. The area under the curve for the PCF nomogram was 0.841 (95% CI 0.786-0.897). The calibration and decision curves indicated that the nomogram was well-calibrated with good clinical utility. The nomogram we constructed may help clinicians predict PCF risk early in the postoperative period, pending external validation.