Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation.

Collins, Gary S; Dhiman, Paula; Ma, Jie; Schlussel, Michael M; Archer, Lucinda; Van Calster, Ben; Harrell, Frank E; Martin, Glen P et al. · BMJ · 2024

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Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

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