Scenario analysis on co-benefits of air pollution control and carbon reduction in Yangtze River Delta based on STIRPAT model.

Abstract

In a changing climate, it is vital to focus on the co-benefits of the pollution control and carbon emission reduction. Based on calculation of emission equivalent, the synergy coefficient is further calculated to quantitatively analyze the co-benefits of air pollution control and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Delta; Scenario analysis in co-benefits in the Yangtze River Delta from 2026-2035 is thoroughly proposed after STIRPAT model is designed based on influencing factors confirmation including population size, economic scale, industrialization level, urbanization rate and energy intensity from measuring dimensions of synergy coefficient. The results show that the Yangtze River Delta region can partially achieve synergistic emission reduction by 2026 and realize comprehensive synergistic emission reduction of air pollution and carbon emissions not late than 2030, which provides a reference for promoting the decision-making of the new stage of long-term carbon and pollution reduction, and further, realizing carbon peak regulation and carbon neutrality.