Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019.

Abstract

<b>Objectives.</b> To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change. <b>Methods.</b> We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November-March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change. <b>Results.</b> Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided. <b>Conclusions.</b> Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor. <b>Public Health Implications.</b> Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (<i>Am J Public Health.</i> 2024;114(4):398-402. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).