Predictability of the National Psychological Stress Screening for Subsequent Long-Term Psychiatric Sick Leave Among Employees: A Multicenter Nested Case-Control Study.

Abstract

The aim of the study is to predict employees' long-term sick leave due to psychiatric disorders using the national psychological stress screening program. University employees who took long-term psychiatric sick leave in 2016-2018 were assigned as cases. Those who were present at work and matched for sex, age, and occupation type were assigned as controls. Answers in a 57-item questionnaire were analyzed by multivariable regression, and a prediction model was developed. It was validated in cases and matched controls in 2019. Six items were identified as independent predictors by multivariable regression and included in a prediction model. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.768 (95% confidence interval: 0.723-0.813). This finding was similar to that in the validation sample. The performance of the prediction model was modest and the national Stress Check Program should be further refined.