Resolving the slip-rate inconsistency of the northern Dead Sea fault.

Li, Xing; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Liu, Shaozhuo; Ma, Zhangfeng; Castro-Perdomo, Nicolás; Cesca, Simone; Masson, Frédéric; Klinger, Yann · Sci Adv · 2024

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

Reported fault slip rates, a key quantity for earthquake hazard and risk analyses, have been inconsistent for the northern Dead Sea fault (DSF). Studies of offset geological and archeological structures suggest a slip rate of 4 to 6 millimeters per year, consistent with the southern DSF, whereas geodetic slip-rate estimates are only 2 to 3 millimeters per year. To resolve this inconsistency and overcome limited access to the northern DSF in Syria, we here use burst-overlap interferometric time-series analysis of satellite radar images to provide an independent slip-rate estimate of ~2.8 millimeters per year. We also show that the high geologic slip rate could, by chance, be inflated by earthquake clustering and suggest that the slip-rate decrease from the southern to northern DSF can be explained by splay faults and diffuse offshore deformation. These results suggest a microplate west of the northern DSF and a lower earthquake hazard for that part of the fault.