Substantially reducing global PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 38548716.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3 and PMC identifier 10978932.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.
Medical subject headings
- Air Pollution
- Air Pollutants