Drivers of natural gas use in U.S. residential buildings.

Mittakola, Rohith Teja; Ciais, Philippe; Schubert, Jochen E; Makowski, David; Zhou, Chuanlong; Bazzi, Hassan; Sun, Taochun; Liu, Zhu et al. · Sci Adv · 2024

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Abstract

Natural gas is the primary fuel used in U.S. residences, yet little is known about its consumption patterns and drivers. We use daily county-level gas consumption data to assess the spatial patterns of the relationships and the sensitivities of gas consumption to outdoor air temperature across U.S. households. We fitted linear-plus-plateau functions to daily gas consumption data in 1000 counties, and derived two key coefficients: the heating temperature threshold (<i>T</i><sub>crit</sub>) and the gas consumption rate change per 1°C temperature drop (Slope). We identified the main predictors of <i>T</i><sub>crit</sub> and Slope (like income, employment rate, and building type) using interpretable machine learning models built on census data. Finally, we estimated a potential 2.47 million MtCO<sub>2</sub> annual emission reduction in U.S. residences by gas savings due to household insulation improvements and hypothetical behavioral change toward reduced consumption by adopting a 1°C lower <i>T</i><sub>crit</sub> than the current value.