The efficacy of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator in head and neck surgery: A meta-analysis.

Abstract

The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator (SRC) estimates the risk for postoperative complications. This meta-analysis assesses the efficacy of the SRC in the field of head and neck surgery. A systematic review identified studies comparing the SRC's predictions to observed outcomes following head and neck surgeries. Predictive accuracy was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and Brier scoring. Nine studies totaling 1774 patients were included. The SRC underpredicted the risk of all outcomes (including any complication [observed (ob) = 35.9%, predicted (pr) = 21.8%] and serious complication [ob = 28.7%, pr = 17.0%]) except mortality (ob = 0.37%, pr = 1.55%). The observed length of stay was more than twice the predicted length (p < 0.02). Discrimination was acceptable for postoperative pneumonia (AUC = 0.778) and urinary tract infection (AUC = 0.782) only. Predictive accuracy was low for all outcomes (Brier scores ≥0.01) and comparable for patients with and without free-flap reconstructions. The SRC is an ineffective instrument for predicting outcomes in head and neck surgery.