Early warning indicators of war and peace through the landscapes and flux quantifications.

Abstract

War and peace, spanning history, deeply affect society, economy, and individuals. Grasping their dynamics is vital to lessen harm and foster global peace. Yet, quantifying them remains hard. Our goal is to create a simple qualitative model using landscape and flux theory, exploring war and peace mechanisms. In this symmetric network, they appear as separate attraction basins, dynamically shifting. Analyzing landscape shape gives insights into global stability. Near critical points, indicators like cross correlations, autocorrelation times, and flickering frequency surge, as warnings. We also calculate the irreversible path between war and peace due to rotational flux. Global sensitivity analysis identifies history's role in system stability. In summary, our research unveils a way to understand war and peace complexities, enhancing knowledge of key elements that lead to conflict, aiding resolution.