The untapped health and climate potential of cycling in France: a national assessment from individual travel data.

Abstract

Promoting active modes of transportation such as cycling may generate important public health, economic, and climate mitigation benefits. We aim to assess the mortality and morbidity impacts of cycling in a country with relatively low levels of cycling, France, along with associated monetary benefits. We further assess the potential additional benefits of shifting a portion of short trips from cars to bikes, including projected greenhouse gas emissions savings. Using individual data from a nationally representative mobility survey, we described the French 2019 cycling levels by age and sex. We conducted a burden of disease analysis to assess the incidence of five chronic diseases (breast cancer, colon cancer, cardiovascular diseases, dementia, and type-2 diabetes) and the number of deaths prevented by cycling, based on national incidence and mortality data and dose-response relationships from meta-analyses. We assessed the corresponding direct medical cost savings and the intangible costs prevented based on the value of a statistical life year. Lastly, based on individual simulations, we assessed the likely additional benefits of shifting 25% of short (<5 km) car trips to cycling. The French adult (20-89 years) population was estimated to cycle on average 1 min 17 sec pers^-1 day^-1 in 2019, with important heterogeneity across sex and age. This yielded benefits of 1,919 (uncertainty interval, UI: 1,101-2,736) premature deaths and 5,963 (UI: 3,178-8,749) chronic disease cases prevented, with males reaping nearly 75% of these benefits. Direct medical costs prevented were estimated at €191 million (UI: 98-285) annually, while the corresponding intangible costs were nearly 25 times higher (€4.8 billion, UI: 3.0-6.5). We estimated that on average, €1.02 (UI: 0.59-1.62) of intangible costs were prevented for every km cycled. Shifting 25% of short car trips to cycling would yield approximatively a 2-fold increase in deaths prevented, while also generating important CO₂ emissions reductions (0.257 MtCO2e, UI: 0.231-0.288). In a country with a low- to moderate-cycling culture, cycling already generates important public health and health-related economic benefits. Further development of active transportation would increase these benefits while also contributing to climate change mitigation targets. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.