Global expansion of tropical cyclone precipitation footprint.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 38844448.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-49115-1 and PMC identifier 11156673.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause massive damage from inland floods and is becoming more intense under a warming climate. However, knowledge gaps still exist in changes of spatial patterns in heavy TC precipitation. Here we define a metric, DIST30, as the mean radial distance from centers of clustered heavy rainfall cells (> 30 mm/3 h) to TC center, representing the footprint of heavy TC precipitation. There is significant global increase in DIST30 at a rate of 0.34 km/year. Increases of DIST30 cover 59.87% of total TC impact areas, with growth especially strong in the Western North Pacific, Northern Atlantic, and Southern Pacific. The XGBoost machine learning model showed that monthly DIST30 variability is majorly controlled by TC maximum wind speed, location, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and total water column vapor. TC poleward migration in the Northern Hemisphere contributes substantially to the DIST30 upward trend globally.