Diurnally asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming.

Abstract

Surface air temperature (SAT) is a key indicator of climate change. Variations in cloud cover affect SAT by interacting with radiation. During daytime, clouds tend to cool the surface by blocking sunlight, while nighttime clouds warm the surface by trapping longwave radiation. Here, we show that, on the global scale, cloud cover, particularly low-level cloudiness, exhibits diurnally asymmetric trends in a warming climate. Cloud fraction on average decreases more during the day than at night. Climate models indicate that the diurnally asymmetric cloud cover variation is mainly driven by trends in the lower tropospheric stability and is largely attributed to the increasing greenhouse gases rather than natural variability. This asymmetry, therefore, turns out to be an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud shortwave albedo effect and increasing the nighttime cloud longwave greenhouse effect.