Uneven consequences of global climate mitigation pathways on regional water quality in the 21st century.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 38937467.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-49866-x and PMC identifier 11211422.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Future socioeconomic climate pathways have regional water-quality consequences whose severity and equity have not yet been fully understood across geographic and economic spectra. We use a process-based, terrestrial-freshwater ecosystem model to project 21st-century river nitrogen loads under these pathways. We find that fertilizer usage is the primary determinant of future river nitrogen loads, changing precipitation and warming have limited impacts, and CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization-induced vegetation growth enhancement leads to modest load reductions. Fertilizer applications to produce bioenergy in climate mitigation scenarios cause larger load increases than in the highest emission scenario. Loads generally increase in low-income regions, yet remain stable or decrease in high-income regions where agricultural advances, low food and feed production and waste, and/or well-enforced air pollution policies balance biofuel-associated fertilizer burdens. Consideration of biofuel production options with low fertilizer demand and rapid transfer of agricultural advances from high- to low-income regions may help avoid inequitable water-quality outcomes from climate mitigation.