Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks.

Davies, Bethan; McNabb, Robert; Bendle, Jacob; Carrivick, Jonathan; Ely, Jeremy; Holt, Tom; Markle, Bradley; McNeil, Christopher et al. · Nat Commun · 2024

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

Globally, glaciers and icefields contribute significantly to sea level rise. Here we show that ice loss from Juneau Icefield, a plateau icefield in Alaska, accelerated after 2005 AD. Rates of area shrinkage were 5 times faster from 2015-2019 than from 1979-1990. Glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent (0.65-1.01 km<sup>3</sup> a<sup>-1</sup>) from 1770-1979 AD, rising to 3.08-3.72 km<sup>3</sup> a<sup>-1</sup> from 1979-2010, and then doubling after 2010 AD, reaching 5.91 ± 0.80 km<sup>3</sup> a<sup>-1</sup> (2010-2020). Thinning has become pervasive across the icefield plateau since 2005, accompanied by glacier recession and fragmentation. Rising equilibrium line altitudes and increasing ablation across the plateau has driven a series of hypsometrically controlled melt-accelerating feedbacks and resulted in the observed acceleration in mass loss. As glacier thinning on the plateau continues, a mass balance-elevation feedback is likely to inhibit future glacier regrowth, potentially pushing glaciers beyond a dynamic tipping point.