Predictive Modeling of Medical and Orthopaedic-Related 90-Day-Readmissions Following Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Abstract

As the demand for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) escalates, 90-day readmissions have emerged as a pressing clinical and economic concern for the current value-based health care system. Consequently, health care providers have focused on estimating the risk levels of readmitted patients; however, it is unknown if specific factors are associated with different types of complications (ie, medical or orthopaedic-related) that lead to readmissions. Therefore, this study aimed to (1) determine the overall, medical-related, and orthopaedic-related 90-day readmission rate and (2) develop a predictive model for risk factors affecting overall, medical-related, and orthopaedic-related 90-day readmissions following TKA. A prospective cohort of primary unilateral TKAs performed at a large tertiary academic center in the United States from 2016 to 2020 was included (n = 10,521 patients). Unplanned readmissions were reviewed individually to determine their primary cause, either medical or orthopaedic-related. Orthopaedic-related readmissions were specific complications affecting the joint, prosthesis, or surgical wound. Medical readmissions were due to any other cause requiring medical management. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate associations between prespecified risk factors and 90-day readmissions, as well as medical and orthopaedic-related readmissions independently. Overall, the rate of 90-day readmissions was 6.7% (n = 704). Over 82% of these readmissions were due to medical-related causes (n = 580), with the remaining 18% being orthopaedic-related (n = 124) readmissions. The area under the curve for the 90-day readmission model was 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.67 to 0.70). Sex, smoking, length of stay, and discharge disposition were associated with orthopaedic readmission, while age, sex, race, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, insurance, surgery day, opioid overdose risk score, length of stay, and discharge disposition were associated with medical-related 90-day readmissions. Medical-related readmissions after TKA are more prevalent than orthopaedic-related readmissions. Through successfully constructing and validating multiple 90-day readmission predictive models, we highlight the distinct risk profiles for medical and orthopaedic-related readmissions. This emphasizes the necessity for nuanced, patient-specific risk stratification and preventive measures.