Rapidly progressive necrotizing enterocolitis: Risk factors and a predictive model.

Abstract

Rapidly progressive necrotizing enterocolitis (RP-NEC) is a particular subtype of NEC known for its rapid progression and high mortality rate. The objective of this study was to establish a predictive model for RP-NEC. This was a retrospective single-center cohort study. Patients were newborn infants with NEC (Bell's stage ≥ IIB) admitted from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2023. The primary outcome was RP-NEC defined as the need for surgical intervention and/or death within 48 hours of the onset of NEC. Totally 334 newborn infants were included, among which 82 (24.6%) were RP-NEC cases with a gestation age 34.1 (31.0, 37.0) weeks and birth weight 2100 (1413, 2800) g. Plasma sodium <135 mmol/L, C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/L, platelet count <100 × 10⁹/L, lymphocyte count <1.5 × 10⁹/L, pH <7.2 in blood gas, and ascites at NEC onset were identified as independent risk factors for RP-NEC. The model established presented an AUC value of 0.983 (95% CI 0.97-0.99). The calibration curve for validation was applied revealing a slope close to unity while the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded χ² = 2.550 (p = 0.636). The predictive model established on the above 6 items of RP-NEC is highly promising. Currently, there is a paucity of research on this specific type of severe necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) characterized by rapid progression. Our study was to investigate the risk factors associated with surgical intervention and/or death within 48 hours following onset in infants with NEC, establish a predictive model for infants with rapidly progressive NEC. The new data presented in this study was the ROC curve combining the above factors as well as hyponatremia.